Goldman gives its four scenarios for year-end, from a mega-cap super rally to a recession-driven decline

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In its base case, the Wall Street investment bank anticipates the S&P 500 has further to climb. But it also laid out several alternative outcomes.

Goldman Sachs has laid out its four stock market scenarios for how the year may end. Wall Street is fast approaching the midpoint of 2024, with investors finding the performance of stocks thus far surprising. The S & P 500 is higher by 14% already this year, having topped 5,400 for the first time ever, already blowing past the year-end forecasts of many strategists.

In fact, the strategist anticipates the S & P 500 can end the year at 5,900, roughly 9% above where it recently traded, in this scenario. As it is, Goldman said just five stocks — Alphabet , Amazon , Meta , Microsoft and Nvidia — are responsible for 60% of the S & P 500's 14% advance this year. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted benchmark is higher by just over 3%.

 

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