SYDNEY - The global cost of the coronavirus could be three or four times that of the 2003 Sars outbreak that sapped the world's economy by US$40 billion , according to the economist who calculated that figure.
"It's just a mathematical thing," McKibbin said in a phone interview."Most of the GDP loss that we saw in the Sars model, and in reality, was China slowing down. And so, with China much bigger, you'd expect the billions would be much bigger." Markets have been whipsawed by panic, Paris-based Amundi Asset Management said in a Jan 29 note. Chief investment officer Pascal Blanque and his deputy Vincent Mortier said the novel coronavirus provided the trigger for a pause in a stock market rally that began in October.Nomura International expects the blow to China's growth could exceed that seen during the Sars outbreak.
"Hong Kong stands out as the most exposed - our simulation shows a hit of 1.7 percentage points in the first quarter. South Korea and Vietnam would also suffer, each slowing by 0.4 ppt. Japan would take a 0.2 ppt hit."