Britain’s budget and the bond markets

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Investors may pay less heed to fiscal rules than Britain’s politicians might imagine

a time when so-called “bond-market vigilantes” could intimidate governments. “Over the course of my career we’ve gone from being rottweilers to poodles”, laments a 35-year market veteran. “You’d go and meet with the Treasury and say the market won’t wear this. Now you’re just thankful to buy something that has a positive yield rather than negative one.”GDP

Fiscal rules are supposed to guard against politicians’ propensity to run up debt by setting rules on how much borrowing is appropriate. Such rules are, in theory, aimed at reassuring investors in British government debt that they are lending to a credible counterparty. But investors pay less heed to them than politicians might imagine.

The role of the Bank of England, which bought more than £400bn of government debt as part of its quantitative-easing programme between 2009 and 2016 and now owns around a quarter of the outstanding debt, has got a lot of attention. But over the longer term, demand from foreign reserve managers and domestic pension funds has been more important.

 

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