The study said extending the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine for another month alone “may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP150 billion due to the possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed during this period.”
PIDS noted that the pandemic has already caused a “significant decline” in crude oil prices in the first quarter of 2020 as countries began to impose lockdowns and cross-border closures to contain the spread of the viral respiratory disease. It likewise warned of of the negative effects of disruptions in both local and global supply chains, particularly “in the delivery of final goods for consumption and the production of other goods and services that rely on intermediate inputs.”Among the recommendations of the study included calls on the government to undertake a “gradual and calibrated transition to a risk-based strategy that combines relaxation of economic restrictions while controlling the spread of the virus.
It added that “other businesses may need to be developed” such as the research, digital platform deliveries, manufacturing, among others, to supply goods and services that cannot be readily sourced from the international market.