That SA is not short of ideas or plans to revive and grow its moribund economy is clear. There have been any number of economic plans from the government, the private sector and other social partners, and a plethora of experts have offered potential solutions to SA’s problems. But the main problem has been, and remains, a failure to implement.
Economic recovery will only start in 2021, at best, with modest GDP growth of between 2.5% and 3.2%, compared with predictions of a GDP contraction of 8% or more for 2020. Frighteningly, some economists estimate the economy will need three to five years to fully recover and begin to make a dent in chronic unemployment that is currently at a 17-year high and predicted to rise to as much as 35% before the end of the year.
It is all very well to admit that mistakes have been made, and launch commissions of inquiry to bring wrongdoers to book; it is another to do something about it There are plenty of low-hanging fruit: focus on the small and medium enterprise sector, which has the potential to create jobs at a lower cost than big companies, many of which are cutting jobs anyway; accelerate infrastructure spend, which would revive the labour-intensive but ailing construction industry; develop the green economy; expand local production and reduce the country’s dependence on imports, some of which have destroyed local industries and jobs.
Agriculture is another potential game-changer in the drive for both economic growth and employment creation, because, by its very nature, it is both long term and labour-intensive. The sector was left relatively unscathed by the impact of Covid-19, principally because people need to eat and commercial food production will always be a winner.
Eskom has thus become one of the major threats to sustained economic recovery and growth. This means facilitating and encouraging the involvement of the private sector, through public-private sector partnerships, and providing incentives to make the development of renewable energy sources a priority.
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