The 'UK in a Changing Europe' group says shortages of fresh food and medicine, queues at ports and borders, and more "hassle" travelling to the continent, are also possible.
"Not even the most pessimistic scenarios suggest that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a fall in output comparable to that seen in the second quarter of 2020. The transition period, which kept the UK aligned to the EU's single market and customs union rules to allow trade to flow smoothly after Brexit, expires at the end of the year unless both sides agree to an extension - something Boris Johnson has ruled out.
The Cabinet Office document states that, in its reasonable worst-case scenario, between 30-50% of trucks crossing the Channel will not be ready for the new regulations coming into force on 1 January 2021, while a "lack of capacity to hold unready trucks at French ports" could reduce the flow of traffic across the strait to 60-80% of normal levels.
They are going to create hassle for our trucks using their country as a land bridge to the continent.
Why would any country inflict this upon itself? 🤷🏻♀️