Irish economy to shrink by between 0.4% and 1.1% this year, says Central Bank

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The Central Bank noted a 'strong divergence' between the performance of Irish exports abroad and general demand at home.

Image: PA Image: PA THE IRISH ECONOMY has somewhat rebounded since the start of the pandemic but the recovery has been “partial” and “uneven”, according to the Central Bank.

But the Central Bank the Central Bank noted a “strong divergence” between general demand levels at home and the performance of Irish exports abroad.On the other, the Central Bank said that the resilience of Irish export growth has buoyed economic output overall and “significantly mitigated the fall in GDP” experienced in the first half of the year.

Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank said that this would mean just one year of lost GDP growth, representing “a better performance than any other advanced economies that I’m aware of”. It also assumes a general decline in international trading conditions as a result of a resurgence of the virus abroad.Asked if the containment measures referred to in the model were similar to the Level 5 restrictions recommended by the National Public Health Emergency Team , Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank, said that it was impossible to speculate what restrictions will be put in place by the government.

This default arrangement would result in new tariffs being applied to goods imported from the EU to the UK from 1 January, 2021. According to the Central Bank, “pharmaceutical products alone accounted for 38% of total merchandise exports in the second quarter of 2020.”

 

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