and M Kulldorff in The Lancet last February made some preliminary estimates of collateral health damage. For example, deaths from acute coronary syndrome in UK nursing homes, from February to June, were up by 41 per cent compared with historic baselines. Hospital chemotherapy appointments were down by 60 per cent and appointments for early diagnosis of suspected cancers were down by 76 per cent compared to pre-Covid levels. This could cause an additional 6,270 deaths within a year.
Although good mental health is fundamental to overall health, mental health services are chronically underfunded even under normal circumstances. Mental health was particularly badly affected by Covid-19 restrictions. Mental ill-health was precipitated by bereavement, social isolation , loss of income and fear. Insomnia and anxiety levels soared and many turned to alcohol and other drugs for relief.
Ireland may have been far too cautious in dealing with this pandemic. UCD’s professor of infectious diseaseargued on Newstalk in August, that since elimination of the virus is not achievable, “this is going to be an annual pandemic similar to influenza”. We must therefore learn to live safely with Covid-19 and get on with life.
Nevertheless, big risks remain. National debt is refinanced every eight to 10 years and who knows what interest rates will apply then. Also, ECB intervention will wind down as the pandemic passes and interest rates will rise, although probably not quickly to the high rates seen in the past. However, key factors here are whether our economic growth rate continues to exceed the national debt interest rate and whether corporation tax returns hold up.
Current spending levels cannot last much longer. Some support programs will stop as the pandemic passes, pushing some businesses to the wall. One legacy of the pandemic will be a much bigger State. We are moving in that direction anyway with huge State investment in home building and the green agenda.
Poor fuckin chair