South African economic data for the fourth quarter have been a decidedly mixed bag. Thursday’s data release maintained this trend, with mining production in October surprising on the upside and manufacturing surprising on the downside.
Mineral sales at current prices increased by 4.8% on an annual basis in October and 12.2% compared with September 2021, signalling that the commodity cycle remains buoyant. The manufacturing sector by contrast did not fare so well in October, in large part because of the Numsa strike that month. Taken together, the data add to the mixed economic outlook for Q4 of 2021. The economy contracted on a quarterly basis by 1.5% in the three months to the end of September, and the rebound this quarter is looking wobbly.