Twelve months since the trade deal with which Britain left the European Union, what impact has it had on the economy? Covid makes it impossible to be sure, but it's much harder to spot Brexit benefits than costs.
Think back to that time. Britain was already out of the European Union, but not of the single market and customs union. It was days away from "crashing out" with no agreement on trading arrangements, which seemed likely to lead to dire economic consequences. Trying to make that boundary work between Cairnryan and Larne has eaten up a lot of 2021 and of goodwill between UK and EU, when the latter was already in short supply., citing disappointment at the way Brexit is going, as well as disapproval of Covid's constraints on individual liberties.
Covid has taken away a large chunk of his custom; pre-Christmas group bookings were down by more than half on the normal level before Omicron hit, and now they're down to below a quarter.Of 20 food outlets in his group, half are shut or operating well below capacity because of staff shortages. In recent months, one in six jobs has been vacant.
So how about recruiting elsewhere? A few Indians are joining, but work visas for Indians or Europeans cost £6,000, when Crieff is allowed one. They can only be for managerial posts. More junior posts are being filled by Strathearn teenagers, when they're not at school. Isolating the Brexit effect suggests a drop of 11 to 16% in the amount of UK trade, which in October came to 15.7% on imports and exports, worth £12.6bn.
The larger firms, which export by the truckload, are getting used to the form-filling. Inconsistent application of the rules by inexperienced EU customs officers are less of a problem than earlier this year. So MacDuff has simply given up exporting to the European Union, and sees no prospect of returning. Instead, Andrew Duff has turned his attention to retail, opening a counter in Edinburgh's new St James Quarter.