Over the past couple of weeks, my view of what is defined as a “recession” has been challenged. The same goes for my view of “stagflation”.
The concept of GDP itself has been subjected to plenty of criticism. But it has long been an axiom that a contraction of GDP by its standard measurement over two consecutive three-month periods within a country’s borders signals that its economy has tipped into a recession. For all its flaws, there is a stark simplicity to GDP.
It all boils down to jobs and confidence, and how the typical laws of economic gravity are being defied.
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