Beyond Tuesday’s headliner report on inflation at the consumer level, a report on Wednesday is expected to show inflation slowed at the wholesale level last month. A report the following day will show how U.S. households have altered their spending amid high inflation, while a Friday report will show how much inflation households are preparing for in upcoming years.
Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, wrote in a report that investors and economists expect inflation to collapse within the next 12 to 18 months.Markets are fairly convinced the Fed will hike its key short-term interest rate by a hefty 0.75 percentage points next week for the third straight meeting. But the hope is that an easing of inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to successfully tiptoe the narrow pathway for a “soft landing” of the economy.
Demmert said the broader market is looking for inflation to not just peak, but to start cooling meaningfully. He said the strong hopes for Tuesday’s inflation report are likely “not going to be healthy for stocks.” A strong dollar helps to limit inflation at home by pushing down on prices for commodities and imports, but it can also hurt profits for U.S. companies that have a lot of sales coming from overseas. The dollar gave up some of its gains on Monday after slipping against the euro, British pound and several others.Treasury yields were mixed. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps control where mortgages and rates for other loans are heading, is back at 3.
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