Wall Street is delusional about coming stock market crash, recession

Americans had stimulus checks to spend, and interest rates were so low debt was easy to access.

Despite the economic mess and worsening profit outlook, Wall Street still seems relatively chill about the markets' prospects. According to Bloomberg, Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 companies' earnings per share to hit $229 in 2023 — a steady increase from their initial 2023 estimate of $211 at the start of this year.

"The risk to the market right now is that earnings per share normalizes to pre-COVID levels," Simon said,"roughly $160 a share." If profits were to fall back in line with earnings, that suggests a 30% to 40% downside to where the market sits right now, according to Simon. by an average of 31%. And the longer the economic slump — and by extension the profit slump — lasts, the worse it will be for stocks.Wall Street is in denial, in part because the economy has been so resilient. Despite historic inflation, the US consumer has continued to chug along, and unemployment is still at record lows. When Powell announced on Wednesday that the Fed had decided to hike rates by 0.75% the market rose a little, then went sideways before diving off a cliff.

I believe a 25% to 30% fall from current levels on the Nasdaq 100 is possible, and a 15% fall in the S&P 500.

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华尔街对即将冲击股市的痛苦完全是妄想

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