that a consolidation above the 200-day SMA at 1.0435 would increase the risks of a rally toward 1.0800.moving further above the low from the end of September at 0.9536. The down trend that had been in place since the start of the Ukraine conflict from late February has just been broken providing a strong technical signal that the balance of risks has become less favourable for the USD in the near-term.
“The main downside risk to our bullish EURUSD bias in the month ahead would be a sharper sell-off for risk assets triggered by intensified fears over a hard landing for the global economy. It would trigger a renewed safe haven bid into the USD pulling EURUSD back below parity and towards year to date lows. The most likely triggers would be a stronger US CPI report for November followed by a hawkish Fed policy update next month.
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MSalordFX Les analystes MUFG Bank ont 1 biais haussier pour EURUSD. Ils le voient s'échanger dans la fourchette 0,9800-1,0800 au cours des prochaines semaines. Ils soulignent qu'une consolidation au-dessus du SMA de 200 jours à 1,0435 augmenterait les risques d'un rallye vers 1,0800.
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