While the Chinese zero-Covid policy and protests against that policy weigh negatively on market sentiment, the OPEC+ meeting on December 4 and the beginning of the EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude oil imports on the next day are likely to shape the course of the prices. Uncertainty is high, which would stoke further volatility in prices.
The recent price rout, with Brent plunging by 10% in one week, intensified speculation that OPEC+ members could consider another production cut when they meet on Sunday, December 4. On the following day, December 5, the EU ban on imports of Russian crude oil and the associated G7-EU price cap begins, with the exact price of the cap yet to be agreed on and announced. With so many uncertainties, oil prices are seesawing and jumping up or down on every rumor or report.
Considering that oil prices slumped to the lowest level since December 2021 earlier this week, OPEC+ could indeed decide to defend an $80 floor under prices, but it will have a difficult task in predicting how the embargo on Russian crude will impact trade flows and prices.