Harry Botha, an analyst at Anchor Stockbrokers, believes the sector is well placed for strong earnings growth over the next three years. Although looming interest rate hikes are set to raise the prime lending rate further, Botha says his analysis reveals a manageable increase in credit impairment charges in the year ahead.
“We expect Standard Bank to deploy its excess capital in its African operations, particularly through corporate investment banking [CIB] lending and deal flow, with the company achieving its targeted return on equity in the 2024 financial year,” he said. “The rise in interest rates benefited banks both from a global and South African perspective as net interest margins expanded, adding to banks’ earnings despite an environment of pressure on the broader markets earnings growth,” he says.
“This was partially offset by increased impairment charges from new business strain as well as pockets of customer strain,” he said. Bad debt write-offs in the six months to end August 2021 were R3-billion. This was because the value of Covid-related reschedules in stage 3 of the loan book diminished over time. However, chief executive Gerrie Fourie says the bank did see higher debt review balances at R5-billion, compared to R4.5-billion in the comparative period for 2021.
“Collections across all product portfolios performed well, with arrears levels reducing in various portfolios. The current debt relief portfolio continues to perform better than expected,” the results statement noted.
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