Goldman slashes US recession risk odds to 25pc

Goldman Sachs significantly cut the odds of the US economy entering a recession over the next year, citing in part the enduring strength in the nation’s jobs market.

The probability reset follows January’s shock jobs report; the economy added 517,000 jobs last month, almost double the consensus forecast. It’s important to note that the headline increase was questioned with some economists keen to say that the data was a lagging metric.In a note, First Trust’s chief economist Brian Wesbury said: “The difficulty of forecasting in this environment is absolutely astounding.

Two key reasons for Hatzuis’ optimism are that wage growth is slowing, a sign that the labour market is rebalancing faster than other job metrics signal.

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