Wall Street sees smaller 225,000 increase in U.S. jobs in February. A much larger gain might spur stiffer Fed rate hike.

Is a key interest rate going to rise sharply this month and put the U.S. closer to recession? Maybe, if the economy posts another supersized increase in new jobs in February.The forecast The economy likely added 225,000 jobs in February, according to economists... Is a key interest rate going to rise sharply this month and put the U.S. closer to recession? Maybe, if the economy posts another supersized increase in new jobs in February.

Another big increase in new jobs — say 300,0000 or more — would add to the Fed’s worries, economists say. Economists expect unemployment to remain at 3.4%. If it fell any lower, the jobless rate would touch the lowest level since 1953. That would also raise alarm bells at the Fed. Average hourly wages are forecast to rise 0.4% in February. That would push the increase over the past year to 4.8% from 4.4% in the prior month.

For one thing, the government introduced new seasonal adjustments as they do every year that may have exaggerated the increase in employment. Finally, the government’s preliminary survey of job increases has shown more volatility due to a lower response rate.

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