"We have a big data print tomorrow with CPI and unless market turmoil really continues and leads to a tightening in financial conditions, then the Fed will do 25 bps," said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management.Reuters Graphics
All of that helped extend a rally in shorter-dated bonds on Monday, putting two-year Treasuries on course for their best three-day gain since 1987. U.S. rates are now expected to reach a high of around 4.9% in June, down from around 5.7% on Wednesday. "There's going to be much more emphasis on the risks to the outlook from Lagarde on Thursday than if SVB hadn't happened," said Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Christiansen.
Long-dated bond yields also dropped much less than shorter-dated peers, with inflation being a greater risk if hikes were to slow or stop.
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