Despite quick action by regulators and policy makers, there’s a rising risk that banking-system stress will spill over into other sectors and the U.S. economy, “unleashing greater financial and economic damage than we anticipated,” said Moody’s Investors Service, one of the Big Three credit-ratings firms.
Moody’s warning comes just as many investors’ worst fears have been allayed for now, and one day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured Americans that the central bank would use its tools to protect depositors. Beneath the surface, though, is lingering worry. Of the three ways in which banking-system troubles could spill over more broadly, one of them is potentially the “most potent,” according to Moody’s: That is a general aversion to risk by financial-market players and a decision by banks to retrench from providing credit. Such a scenario could lead to the “crystallization of risk in multiple pockets simultaneously,” the ratings agency said.
A second potential channel for spillover is through the direct and indirect exposure to troubled banks that private and public entities have — via deposits, loans, transactional facilities, essential services, or holdings in those banks’ bonds and stocks. And a third way in which banking problems could spread more broadly is through a misstep by policy makers, who have been focused on inflation and may not be able to respond effectively enough to evolving developments, Moody’s said.
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