A recession is guaranteed this year based on Powell's favorite signal

"Frankly, there's good research by staff in the Federal Reserve system that really says to look at the short — the first 18 months — of the yield curve. That's really what has 100% of the explanatory power of the yield curve. It makes sense. Because if it's inverted, that means the Fed's going to cut, which means the economy is weak."

An inverted yield curve suggests investors aren't confident about future returns, and it's a classic warning for a economic downturn. Additionally, to Powell's point, the bond market is saying that the central bank will reduce interest rates in the coming 18 months, given that the near-term yields are higher than where investors expect them to be later on.

On Wednesday, the Fed made a quarter-point interest rate hike, and markets began pricing in higher odds that the central bank would cut rates as soon as July, Bloomberg data shows.

This guy is definitely the stock market doomsday. Every time he speaks the market crashes…

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