Exclusive: Fed's Bullard discounts recession talk, favors more rate hikes

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The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said.

In comments countering views that the U.S. is heading towards a banking crisis, a recession, or both in the near future, Bullard told Reuters in an interview: "Wall Street's very engaged in the idea there's going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn't really the way you would read an expansion like this."

In the case of the staff forecast, the fallout from recent stress in the banking sector seemed to tip the scales. Measures like the Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation rate have been flat over several months, an indication - depending on the point of view - of underlying inflation still more than double the Fed's target that needs to be squelched, or of the delayed impact of monetary policy still to be felt.

Some policymakers and analysts worry it is those final steps that could push the economy into a recession. And beyond the rate hike decision next month, the Fed will have to send some signal about what happens next - whether to keep the language in the current policy statement that "some additional policy firming may be appropriate," or point to a pause.

Once interest rates are at a level considered "sufficiently restrictive" to slow inflation, Bullard said he felt "the bias would be higher for longer" to be sure it is fully under control.

 

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