But can the strong consumer sector continue to hold up as the pandemic-era savings fade away and interest rates remain elevated? Not everyone is convinced, with some Wall Street strategists and economists arguing that a recession is just a matter of time as the central bank tries to bring down inflation, and there is plenty of evidence for that pessimistic case.
"The US and global expansions stand on solid ground, and fears of an imminent recession look overblown. This is the message from the latest releases showing a surprising increase in the global manufacturing PMI alongside strong gains in US goods spending and employment. But these data also suggest that the seeds for an end to expansion are being sown," JPMorgan global market strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients on Monday.
However, that may not be a great read on the health of the consumer this time around. There has been a dramatic decline in the number of existing homes being placed on the market, which is exacerbating the national housing shortage and could make demand look stronger than it truly is. "If you own a home, if you locked in a 2.8% 30-year mortgage, that's the best trade of your life. Unless you have to move, you're not going to move," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.