https://business.inquirer.net/404202/australias-central-bank-says-hike-this-week-due-to-inflation-risks-warns-more-may-come
He expects quarterly growth to average just a 0.1- percent over the next four quarters, with a 50- percent chance that the economy would enter a recession. Further, Bloxham expects the RBA to start cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024. With the full effect of the hefty monetary policy tightening – 400 basis points since last May, including 100 basis points since February – yet to be felt through the economy, bond markets are starting to price in recession risks.The bond yield curve has now inverted, considered a signal of recession fears. On Friday morning, two-year yields stood at 4.018 percent, 6 basis points above the 10-year yields but almost 8 basis points below the cash rate.
Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at investment firm Challenger and a former RBA executive, says the risk of trying to hold on to job gains was that higher inflation expectations hardened and kept the actual inflation rate high.