Global Economy Loses Trillions Of Dollars In Years Following El Niño - CleanTechnica

) spent two year examining global economic activity in the decades following the 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and found a “persistent signature” of slowed economic growth more than five years later. The global economy bled $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, in the half-decade after each of these events, most of it borne by the world’s poorest nations in the tropics.

By 2003, lower-income tropical nations had experienced the greatest losses in gross domestic product due to the 1997-98 El Niño. The researchers project that global economic losses for the 21st century will amount to $84 trillion as climate change potentially amplifies the frequency and strength of El Niño — even if current pledges by world leaders to reduce carbon emissions come to fruition. The researchers estimate that the El Niño predicted for 2023 alone could hold the global economy back by as much as $3 trillion by 2029.

Lead author Christopher Callahan, a U.S. National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow, said the study addresses an ongoing debate about how quickly societies rebound from major climate events such as El Niño. “We can say with certainty that societies and economies absolutely do not just take a hit and recover,” said Callahan, adding that the data suggest that a downturn after El Niño could last as long as 14 years.

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