USD/JPY sinks to two-month low amid softening US inflation, Fed rate hike speculations

US inflation seems to be easing, with June’s Producer Price Index missing estimates and the previous month’s data. The Core PPI, excluding volatile items, also showed signs of weakening.

Japanese households expect higher inflation levels, averaging 10.5% for next year, well above the BoJ’s 2% target. Although the data would justify a pause on the Fed’s tightening cycle, money market futures think otherwise. According to the CME FedWatcth Tool, odds for a quarter of a percentage increase lie above 90%. Even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell and some of his colleagues expressed that “a couple” of increases are pending, investors pared those bets. That said, the Federal Funds Rate is expected to peak at 5.25%-5.50% for the remainder of the year.

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