The investment firm said in a Friday note that it still expects a mild recession to hit the US economy as a lot of the strength seen in consumer spending and the labor market is finally showing signs of weakening.
These are the four reasons why he is sticking with his call that a mild recession is set to hit the US economy in the coming months. Over the last year, a tight labor market, strong wage gains and excess savings from the pandemic have propped up consumption, but those tailwinds are finally fading, according to the note.
He highlighted recent increases in delinquency rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages, as well as rising credit card balances and borrowing rates as other factors that will likely slow spending."While the unemployment rate continues to hover near a 53-year low of 3.5%, there are signs that the labor market is cooling.
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