FINLAYSON: Rapid transition to low-carbon world simply not realistic

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We’re living through a remarkable period in the evolution of international energy markets.

Total world energy consumption and related GHG emissions fell in the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. However, as economic activity revived, so too did the need for all forms of energy. In 2021, as economies rebounded, energy consumption and GHG emissions rose, soon surpassing 2019 levels. Last year saw a further jump in energy demand.

So how much energy does the world consume? The answer is roughly 600 exajoules annually, equivalent to more than 100 billion barrels of oil. This is more than in 2019, before the pandemic hit. Since 2015, when the international Paris Agreement on climate change was inked, global energy consumption has climbed by roughly 10%.Article contentAs for energy demand across different fuel types, the good news is that renewable energy has made headway.

A realistic timetable for reducing fossil fuel use and GHG emissions should be aligned with the data and trends in energy production and use. That isn’t the case today, certainly not in Canada. Here, the Trudeau government is fond of conjuring a quick, largely painless transition to a low-carbon future. But the evidence suggests that won’t happen, even with the growing focus on the consequences of climate change.

When the data are tallied, global energy consumption in 2023 will be higher than the year before. Renewable energy sources continue to advance, but not at a pace that supports an expectation of a rapid low-carbon transition. To cite an example: recent news reports confirm that China — by the far largest emitter of GHG — is still boosting investments in coal-fired power both at home and abroad. And across most emerging markets, we observe continued growth in the demand for fossil fuel energy.

One thing that both history and scholarship teach is that energy transitions are a long-term affair and largely depend on technology. This insight doesn’t fit well with the timelines proposed by politicians in a hurry to solve the climate change problem.Share this article in your social network

 

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