Goldman Sachs is out with some bold calls on the economy to start the holiday shortened week, cutting the odds of a recession in the U.S. to just 15% and saying the Federal Reserve won't hike interest rates this month and could be done altogether. "The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15%" from 20% prior, wrote Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist in a note dated Monday .
Instead, GDP has grown by about 2% in the first two quarters, inflation has slowed and the Fed has begun recently treading more carefully with rate hikes, even pausing one month. Hatzius noted the consensus Wall Street recession probability is still 60%, citing a Bloomberg survey, putting Goldman in far more optimistic territory than the rest of the crowd.
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