Peak China gloom or geopolitical quagmire?

Whether China has become “uninvestable” or not, avoidance of the world’s second-largest economy suggests the economic and political risks there have simply become too hard to assess.

As some reflection of that, Bank of America’s global fund manager survey this week spotlighted the extent to which all those fears are translating into investment positioning. Perhaps most significantly, the dour China-led emerging markets outlook was independent of an improving global growth picture overall - with a rise in exposure to U.S. equity this month the biggest in the survey’s history and the first net overweight position since August 2022.

Back then, a surge in political and currency risk around Asia and other developing markets saw visibility disappear. U.S. money fled home to a domestic emerging market in Silicon Valley - and was partly responsible for fuelling theChina was only a bit player in the investment world at the time, of course. Now it’s a challenger to U.S. economic heft - unlike any of the emerging economies in the fray 25 years ago.

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