The risk of a global recession over the next 12 to 18 months is close to a “coin flip” and financial markets are underestimating the chances of one in the United States, executives at bond giant PIMCO said on Wednesday.
Ivascyn said PIMCO is the most interested it has been in interest rate exposure in years, and has also been adding to its position in inflation-linked bonds. Deficit and debt levels were a concern, he added. On China, where slowing demand and a deepening property crisis have exacerbated economic slowdown, portfolio manager Pramol Dhawan said PIMCO was looking for additional stimulus to support the economy and had not yet seen a “credible solution”.
Dhawan added that U.S.-China tensions were also denting investor appetite for Chinese stocks. Data on Wednesday showed non-residents withdrew nearly $15 billion from the sector in August, the largest monthly outflow on record.