Summer is over and autumn is here. You’re not surprised to see Halloween candy on the shelves of your local WalMart. Fall is just part of the cycle of nature, predictable in general — although we still may suffer with some high-temp days and nights. Summer is over.
If we’re not surprised by the cycles of nature, why should we be surprised by other cycles — some even longer than a season, perhaps as long as decades? In fact, there are economic cycles that have been documented to last for generations, so they are less likely to confront us with the need to prepare for change.In this week’s column, I invite you to look beyond your personal finances, beyond the six-month rate of your Treasury bills, and beyond the tech stocks driving the market.
That’s not to say you can do much to protect yourself from these broad cyclical peaks and valleys. But awareness will make you less likely to feel at the mercy of the powerful forces at work here and thus relieve some personal anxiety.If you haven’t already stopped reading, you might want to look into all the fascinating studies of long-term economic cycles.
If indeed cycles do “rule” our long term economic evolution, it makes sense that they also apply to our socio-political condition. Do you have a queasy feeling at the rise of authoritarian rulers around the world? Draw a line between Putin and Kim Jong Un and Netanyahu and some of the forces at work in America this election cycle. It’s not coincidence.
A new book, “The Fourth Turning is Here” by Neil Howe , delves more deeply into our current cycle and the changes he expects in the coming 10 years. To read an insightful summary of Howe’s work, go toOr you can just ignore that big picture and go on with your life, which most people will do. But once awakened to these historic movements, you might look at current economic and political events with a slightly different view.