US Dollar Q4 Fundamental Outlook: How CPI Shelter Lag May Drive Monetary Policy Next

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The US Dollar cautiously rose against its major peers in the third quarter as financial markets increased where the terminal Federal Funds Rate will go. Will CPI shelter lag change this view next?

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.US DollarFor the most part, the US Dollar aimed higher in the third quarter of 2023. In fact, the DXY Dollar Index rallied for an impressive 9 consecutive weeks, matching performance from 2014. A key driver was the rise in longer-term Treasury yields, influenced by rising expectations of a higher terminal Federal Funds Rate.

This ought to be good news for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to get inflation to come down to target. That said, this is just one component of the various ingredients that are mixed into monetary policy. For example, this does not factor in the recent rise inprices, as well as the evolving outlook on the labor market.

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