Asian action has been dominated by news from Israel, with the usual safe-haven suspects getting a bid. With one war already raging in Europe, a new conflict in the Middle East was bound to rattle the markets.
The yen is up modestly on the safety bid, while the euro, in a region with high exposure to energy costs, is lagging. The U.S. is an oil exporter, after all. For equities, U.S. and Nikkei stock futures are down around 0.7%. Up to now, Washington is seen to have taken a softer stance on the Iranian oil embargo as it tried to broker a grand peace deal across the Middle East. But that could change, particularly if U.S. citizens were killed in the fighting.
A sustained rise in oil prices would be an unwelcome blow to inflation but also a tax on consumers, so the implication for interest rates isn't straightforward.
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