Inflation has been full of surprises throughout its three-year climb in the U.S., yet one thing that apparently hasn’t changed is its overall path when compared with what it did between 1966 and 1982.
The absolute levels of the CPI year-on-year changes look much different between the two periods — with inflation going well above 10% in the 1970s and 1980s, but only peaking this time around at 9.1% last June. In both periods, however, inflation subsequently fell off and was followed by trouble out of the Middle East. An Arab oil embargo in the 1970s imposed on the U.S. and a handful of other countries gave way to a second round of inflation later that decade and into the early 1980s.
Chief among the near-term risks is the possibility that Israel’s war on Hamas spirals out of control and engulfs the Middle East region. See also: 70% chance Israel-Hamas war spreads beyond Gaza, threatening oil, strategist warns and Why financial markets may be unprepared for a fourth-quarter ‘inflation surprise’