Several central banks are still expected to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2024, but a growing number of economists surveyed are adjusting their views, pushing the more likely date into the second half of next year.
The latest Reuters poll of over 500 economists taken between Oct. 6 and Oct. 25 produced 2024 growth downgrades and inflation upgrades for a majority of the 48 economies around the world surveyed. The survey results also follow a warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said after the ECB snapped a 10-meeting tightening streak that "even having a discussion on a cut is totally, totally premature."
"Our forecast is that the Fed has done enough and they don't have to raise rates further, but I haven't closed off the possibility we could be wrong and the Fed does ultimately have to do more." The majority backing no cuts until the second half of 2024 has also grown stronger for the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia and the Reserve Bank of India.
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