Surge in interest rates and a cloudier economic picture to keep Federal Reserve on sidelines

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The Federal Reserve is poised to leave its key interest rate unchanged Wednesday at a time when the Fed faces an economy that has proved resilient but is nevertheless under pressure from surging interest rates, overseas turmoil and anxious investors.

U.S. economic growth surged in the July-September quarter on the back of robust consumer spending, and inflation showed signs last month of staying uncomfortably high. Chair Jerome Powell will want to make sure that the economy cools and that inflation resumes its descent before signaling any let-up in the Fed's drive to slow inflation to its 2% target level.

Economists at Wall Street banks have estimated that sharp losses in the stock and bond markets over the past few months will have a depressive effect on the economy equal to the impact of three or four quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed. Market analysts say an array of factors have combined to force up Treasury yields. For one thing, the government is expected to sell potentially trillions of dollars more in bonds in the coming years to finance huge and persistent budget deficits even as the Fed is shrinking its holdings of bonds. As a result, higher Treasury rates may be needed to attract more buyers.

Wall Street traders foresee a 98% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. And they envision only a 24% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s following meeting in December. “The story of the year so far," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote, “has been that economic reacceleration has not prevented further ... progress in the inflation fight.”

 

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