, it would seem that the risk is that they are not done, and the problematic part is that they seem to be entirely data-dependent at this point, with really no plan or course of action. Powell made it fairly clear they aren’t even confident that rates are sufficiently restrictive at this point.
Based on that, there will be no rate cuts coming anytime soon, and higher rates and tighter financial conditions will need to be persistent before they can be substituted for monetary policy. One or two months of high rates on the back of the curve will not substitute for monetary policy.His voice may have been soft, but nothing was soft about what was said. The market’s positive reaction had everything to do with Vanna and implied volatility melting, then what Powell said.
The S&P 500 popped another 1% Wednesday, making this three up days in a row. While this still has a long way to go before getting back even half of the previous eight sessions of...
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