Treasury yields dip ahead of inflation data in coming days

Bond yields dipped early Monday as the market prepared for consumer and factory gate inflation in the next few days.

That narrative will be put to the test in coming sessions as the October consumer price index report is published on Tuesday and the producer prices data released on Wednesday. “Any surprise to the upside could push back expectations for future rate cuts,” analysts at Saxo Bank. “On Wednesday, inflation figures are also released in the UK. Overall, we expect yield curves to continue to steepen, and the long part of the yield curve to remain vulnerable to supply-demand dynamics and inflation expectations.”

The chances of a 25 basis point rate hike to a range of 5.50 to 5.75% at the subsequent meeting at the end of January is priced at 26%, up from 15% a week ago.

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