It’s tough times for curmudgeons. After a year of tapping our feet, waiting for a recession that seemed inevitable to sweep across North America, we are now being forced to admit that, darn it, things might turn out to be just fine. A soft landing for the economy is far from certain but it has gone from a faint hope to a strong possibility, particularly in the United States. Only six months ago, a majority of economists expected the United States to slide into a downturn over the coming year.
Now the consensus calls for no recession. Granted, the Canadian picture is less encouraging. Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management, pointed out in a recent report that retail sales per capita in this country are already sliding. Meanwhile, business surveys are registering more woe-is-me than a country-and-western song. All of this would be consistent with a downturn soon. Even in Canada, though, the overwhelming probability is for a mild recession at wors