Notable standouts in the report surfaced via sub-indices, ‘employment’, ‘production’ and the forward-looking metric ‘new orders’ as they all declined compared to January. While the surveyed results provide ‘soft data’, it is something the market has viewed as noteworthy – judging by the reaction. The chart below depicts the immediate reaction to the data from the dollar basket’s perspective.
ISM services PMI data next week is forecast slightly lower than in January, meaning a small deviation from expectations or a move higher, may be enough to see the dollar edge higher again. The zone of resistance comprises of the 104.70 level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 major decline. This presents the next challenge for USD bulls. Downside levels to watch include the dynamic support provided by the 200 SMA followed by 103.00.
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