Canada’s population shock drives most of recent productivity declines

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The drop stems from a combination of chronically-low business investment in Canada and the sudden explosion in the country’s population

As Ottawa overhauls its temporary immigration programs, a new analysis by Bank of Nova Scotia warns that the unchecked population surge of the past two years is behind two-thirds of the “massive” decline in productivity over the same time period.

Given weak investment levels, that’s far more than the 350,000 permanent and temporary immigrants Canada’s economy can absorb without having a negative impact on productivity, according to Rebekah Young, head of inclusion and resilience economics at the bank. The surge of temporary workers has helped keep a lid on what would have been even higher wage increases, she added, giving businesses even less of a reason to invest in productivity-boosting measures.

 

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