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Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are growing concerned as the outlook for profits has been weakening even as the S&P 500 reaches fresh highs. Equity gains over the past five months have been driven by easier financial conditions and higher valuations rather than improving fundamentals, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, consensus earnings estimates have been revised lower over the past five months, with analysts currently expecting earnings-per-share to grow about 9% this year versus 11% at the start of November. But while profit estimates have been falling, US stocks have continued to rally amid optimism about potential rate cuts and developments in artificial intelligence, with a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results season also helping.
“Our concern is that profit growth could underwhelm, for a number of reasons,” a team led by Matejka wrote in a note. “If the earnings acceleration fails to materialize, this could act as a constraint.”
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