Analysis-Bank of Japan may be less dovish than markets think

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Halifax police investigating Monday morning Dartmouth death as suspicious | SaltWire #newsupdateTOKYO - The Bank of Japan has ditched its dovish forward guidance in favour of a more"data-dependent" approach to policy deliberations after ending negative rates, sources say, keeping the door open for another near-term hike in borrowing costs.

However, a close look at the BOJ statement shows the bank has made no promise to keep interest rates at current low levels but instead conditionally states that borrowing costs could stay low if economic and price conditions don't change. The BOJ's language last week compared with the more assertive tone of previous guidance that it"will continue" with ultra-loose policy to stably hit its price target, and"will not hesitate" to ramp up stimulus if needed.

"If our price forecast clearly overshoots or, even if our median forecast is unchanged, we see a clear increase in upside risk to the price outlook, that will likely lead to a policy change," Ueda said. A Reuters poll taken after the March policy shift showed more than a half of economists expect the BOJ to hike rates again this year, though most do not see rate hikes coming at least until the fourth quarter.

 

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