Japan Intervention Would Target 5-Yen Rally, Strategists Say

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(Bloomberg) -- Japanese authorities would probably target a five-yen rally against the dollar if they decide to intervene in foreign exchange markets...

-- Japanese authorities would probably target a five-yen rally against the dollar if they decide to intervene in foreign exchange markets, according to strategists at some of the country’s biggest brokerages.Officials have ratcheted up their warnings against speculative moves in the yen, which reached the weakest level in about 34 years against the dollar last week.

The Ministry of Finance spent more than ¥9 trillion in three occasions in September and October 2022. On its first intervention, the Japanese currency gained more than five yen to an intraday high of 140.36 per dollar compared with its low for the day. “Intervention will have short-term impact by encouraging some position adjustment,” said Monex Inc. bond and currency trader Tsutomu Soma. “But the yen is likely to return to where it was over a course of a week or so.”Also weighing on the yen are fund outflows by retail investors.

“The fundamental problems for the yen’s weakness against the dollar include the low potential economic growth in Japan, fiscal deficit and structural issues with the trade balance,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities Co.Factory activity in many Asia economies weakened in March but there were some brighter signs in China and South Korea, surveys and data showed on Monday, offering a mixed picture on the once fast-expanding, key driver of the global economy.

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