Investors are starting to realize that not all emerging markets are worth the risk

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At a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve has well and truly capitulated on its hiking path, some emerging markets are not showing signs of relief.

div > div.group > p:first-child"> Argentina's peso is close to an all-time low, the Turkish Lira is teetering close to its year-to-date low again and the South African rand is creeping back to December levels.

A dovish Fed may have taken the pressure off emerging markets, but investors have now become more attuned to the mantra that not all of these economies are cut from the same cloth. In fact, the currencies that have suffered this year are not only the countries with high external dollar liabilities, but also happen to be the ones facing the softest growth conditions.

Turkey is also in the midst of stagnation. The economy contracted 3 percent toward the end of 2018, inflation is just shy of 20 percent with pass-through from the currency after the lira depreciated 30 percent in 2018. Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in a note last week that beyond politics,"markets would like to see a shift in the growth model: away from a credit-dependent model towards a more sustainable one," adding that one cannot assume Turkey is an isolated event as investors become increasingly wary of financing countries that are too heavily indebted/credit dependent.

 

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