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"We find that the global economy remains quite resilient," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF's chief economist, told reporters, adding that many countries have defied gloomy predictions of recession as central banks hiked interest rates to fight inflation. "The general trajectory still remains one where we expect inflation to come down over the year and put the Federal Reserve in a position where it will be able to start easing the policy rates," he told Reuters."Maybe not as quickly as what the markets had expected."
But the latest IMF forecasts showed stark divergences with other countries, including in the euro zone, where the 2024 growth forecast was revised downward to 0.8% from 0.9% in January, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment in Germany and France. Britain's 2024 growth forecast also was revised down by 0.1 percentage point to 0.5% as the country struggles with high interest rates and stubbornly high inflation.The IMF left unchanged its forecast for China's 2024 growth to fall to 4.
But the global lender noted bright spots in some other big emerging market countries, raising its growth forecast for Brazil's economy in 2024 by half a percentage point to 2.2% and increasing the forecast for India's economic growth by 0.3 percentage point to 6.8%. Ukraine's growth, which is highly dependent on economic aid from the West, is forecast to slow to 3.2% in 2024 and accelerate to 6.5% in 2025.
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