Traders on Polymarket now put the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in 2024 at 32%, compared to 7% in March.
The probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year is rising. Hawkish pricing on Polymarket is consistent with traditional markets, where traders now see just two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 versus six in early January. Bank of America recently pushed out the timing of the first Fed rate cut to December from June, while Societe Generale said the central bank would not cut rates until 2025.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation has returned to the U.S. economy, indicating that rate cuts may not happen any time soon.the hawkish bandwagon, saying, “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates” given the strength of the economy."