Through the following slides, JPMorgan provides detailed insight into the state of equities and both the US and global economy.
Meanwhile, the yield-curve inversion and falling profit margins have sparked fears of a potential US economic slowdown, or even a recession.Equity markets have roared back from the volatility they experienced in the fourth quarter, with the S&P 500 up more than 11% year-to-date. The index is within 2% of its all-time high of 2,940.91 that was reached in September.
Share buybacks, a source of recent political contention on both sides of the aisle, are now responsible for over half of earnings-per-share growth, which slowed markedly in the fourth quarter of 2018.The US yield curve briefly inverted, with the 2-year yield above the 10-year in 2019, prompting fears of a looming recession. An inversions has typically preceded a recession, though the lead time has ranged from seven to 19 months.
The US government deficit is forecast to reach nearly $900 billion in 2019, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO predicted economic growth would approach 3% before slowing down next year.
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