The Fed's big question: Are high interest rates doing their job?

Share on linkedin Fed chair Jerome Powell at his March news conference. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

That is taking imminent interest rate cuts off the table and has made the timing of their eventual arrival uncertain. It means rising odds that the Fed's next move will be a rate hike, not a rate cut, though Fed officials have stressed that's not what they anticipate.The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave its target interest rate unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% following the meeting Wednesday afternoon.

But the real news will be in what chair Jerome Powell says in a news conference scheduled for 2:30pm ET Wednesday.Powell and other Fed officials have expressed great certainty that their current interest rate policy — in place since last July — is restrictive, meaning it is putting the brakes on economic activity in a way that will bring inflation down over time.

Despite a shaky April, financial markets have been buoyant, with the S&P 500 index up 23% since late October and corporate lending abundant.What they're saying:

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Strong Job Creation in March Surpasses Expectations10-year Treasury numbers showed job creation in March easily topped market expectations. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, as expected. Many market watchers noted that the blockbuster report would be yet another reason for the Fed to take its time. Signs that the U.S. economy is in good shape managed to overcome concerns that the Fed might put off its rate hikes amid inflationary pressures. The fed funds futures market is still pricing in that the U.S. central bank will start cutting in June.
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